Why Roadmaps Lie

Roadmaps often promise more precision than is possible. Understanding why helps you use them honestly.

A roadmap looks authoritative: features in boxes, dates attached, a march toward a destination.

But what does a roadmap actually represent?

- What we plan to do (not what will actually happen)

- What we believe matters (not necessarily what will matter)

- What we think is possible (not what's proven feasible)

Roadmaps are hypotheses, not contracts. Yet they're often treated as promises.

Roadmaps misrepresent reality because:

Time reduces accuracy: Confidence near term, fantasy long term. Q1 features might ship; Q4 features are speculation.

Dependencies are invisible: Other teams, vendors, market changes—roadmaps assume these go smoothly.

Discovery is unpredictable: What you learn changes what you build. Roadmaps assume learning is complete.

Politics shape content: Features appear because someone important asked, not because they're validated.

Roadmaps range from honest to deceptive:

Most honest: "Here's what we're exploring and why. Specifics will emerge as we learn."

Somewhat honest: "Here's our direction. Near-term items are committed; further out is directional."

Dishonest but common: "Here's exactly what we'll deliver with dates." (Usually not true.)

Most dishonest: The same roadmap shown to every audience, with no discussion of uncertainty.

Despite their limitations, roadmaps serve real purposes:

- Stakeholders need to plan around product changes

- Teams need to coordinate across dependencies

- Leadership needs to understand where resources are going

- Sales needs something to tell customers

The need is real. The problem is pretending roadmaps are more accurate than they are.

You can create roadmaps that:

- Distinguish between committed, planned, and exploratory items

- Get less specific further into the future

- Name key assumptions and dependencies

- Are updated as learning happens

- Come with conversation, not just artifacts

This doesn't eliminate their limitations. It makes the limitations visible.

•Roadmaps are hypotheses about the future, not contracts
•Accuracy decreases with time; dependencies and discovery disrupt plans
•Roadmaps serve real needs but are often presented more accurately than they are
•Honest roadmaps distinguish commitment levels and name assumptions